Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Why there will never be another 30 game winner

The last pitcher in Major League Baseball to win 30 games in a season was one Denny McLain, of the Detroit Tigers. He went 31-6 way back in 1968, For the record, he got shelled in his two starts against the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series that year. Southpaw Mickey Lolich wound up being the unlikely hero as the Motowners captured the title in a thrilling 7 game series.

But it will never happen again.

It's simply a matter of numbers.

Back in those days, team had 4-man starting pitching rotations. Given the same 162 game regular season, that meant -- if they stayed healthy throughout -- they'd get about about 40 starts.

Over time, and burnt out arms, MLB has evolved into 5-man rotations, with a 6th getting an occasional start.

Do the math. That means instead of 40 starts, they'll get maybe 31-32, at most.

And nobody's gonna win em all. Even the best don't always have their "best stuff", or maybe they get out-dueled by an opposing pitcher having a particularly good day. Or their own team doesn't give them much if any run support. Losing a 1-0 or 2-1 game is rough, but it happens.

To boot, there will be a few, perhaps several games where the starter gets no decision at all. Pitch counts being what they are, a complete game is a rarity these days. Maybe an ace starter is cruising along into the 7th or 8th inning with a slim lead, but whoops, now he's up to 130 pitches. They'll yank him. How many times have we seen bullpens implode and blow a lead? That happens too.

So who's the best pitcher in the game these days? Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers? Justin Verlander of the Astros? Max Scherzer of the Nationals?

Even if those guys are dominant every time out, the BEST they can likely do is rack up 25 Ws.

Which is a far cry from 30.

It's just a matter of numbers.









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