Thursday, November 21, 2013

Detroit Lions and shifting sands

Just a couple weeks ago, the Detroit Lions seemed to be on cruise control heading into the playoffs. Pretty much everything that could have went their way -- did.

And due to a very weird year in the NFL, even the Lions' schedule appeared to change from a gauntlet of thorns into a path of rose petals. Consider:

The Minnesota Vikings have turned out to be terrible.
Though they finally broke their forever jinx in Washington, the Skins have rolled out a product akin to Obamacare. High expectations, but so far a bust.
Cleveland? Puh-leeze. Everybody beats Cleveland.
The Lions lucked up and beat the Cowboys in the waning seconds of their game on a surprise QB sneak/jump by Matthew Stafford.
Sure, the Lions got beat at home by Cinci, but the Bengals are pretty good. And they got trashed again in Green Bay, but that's just business as usual.

After going 6-3, even the rest of their schedule looked promising. Who would have guessed the Pittsburgh Steelers would come stumbling out of the gate with a 2-6 record? Yet the Steelers seem to have righted their ship and thumped the Lions just last Sunday.

The same goes for Philly, Baltimore, and the NY Giants, all still remaining on the Lions' schedule. They all had a terrible first half of the season, but seem to have found their way and are playing much better of late.

What once looked like a formidable schedule for the Lions, which magically turned into a presumed cakewalk, has suddenly shifted back into probably being not so easy. None of these teams can currently be chalked up as automatic wins for the Lions.

This weekend they host the Tampa Bay Bucs. They started out the season 0-8. Just a few weeks ago, this game seemed like a gimme for the Lions. But now, maybe not.

Out of nowhere, the Bucs went into Seattle three weeks back and gave the Seahawks all they wanted. Seattle (10-1) is probably the toughest place in the league to play for a visiting team. Like highly respected former player, head coach, and current NFL analyst Herman Edwards once said -- I don't know what it is they put in their coffee up there before a home game -- but whatever it is sure seems to work. This is a house of horrors for any team that has to play there. Tampa Bay was supposed to get blistered by 28 points. But something happened, and they only lost by 3. Since then, they've won their last two games, and looked pretty good doing so.

What does this mean for the Lions? The Bucs aren't the patsies they were earlier in the season. They've found a little bit of "game" these days. The Lions are 9 point favorites, which seems about right, but make no mistake. This is not the walkover that the members of the Honolulu BASS (blue and silver slappies) fan club might think it is. This Sunday at Ford Field will be a pivotal point in the Lions' season. If they win, they go to 7-4, and have Green Bay, likely still without all-world QB Aaron Rodgers coming to town 4 days later on Thanksgiving. Green Bay without Rodgers is like the Lions without Calvin Johnson. Take either player away, and all of a sudden that team becomes very beatable -- by anybody.

But if the Lions lose to the Bucs to go 6-5, entirely possible, then their wheels might start falling off again. After Green Bay, with or without Rodgers, the Lions get Philly, Baltimore and the NY Giants, all teams that have seen a recent resurgence, and fighting for playoff spots themselves.

The glass "half fullers" of the BASS club likely think their Lions will wind up at least 10-6, or maybe 11-5, while hosting one home playoff game, and maybe two. They could be right.

They could also be wrong. Given the quickly shifting sands of the NFL, the Lions could also wind up 8-8, or maybe even 7-9, and miss the playoffs entirely. Stranger things have happened and, after all, it IS the Lions.

I'm pretty sure they don't want to go into Minnesota, despite how bad that team has been so far, on the last week of the season needing a win to get into the playoffs. Amongst others, a guy named Adrian Peterson will await them there, and he's no slouch.

Yep, though favored, the Lions better win the next game against the Bucs. Because if they don't, yours truly suspects their collective lug nuts will become very loose, very fast.

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