Now that the Detroit Tigers have long since cleaned out their lockers and gone back home to wherever they live in the off-season, perhaps an objective look at that team is in order. Sure, the team itself, the local fans, and their kool-aided scribes will currently view the glass as being half-full, if not overflowing, but yours truly suspects that glass might be emptier than they think. Here's a look at the flip side.
While the Tigers were expected to run away with the AL Central crown -- in the end -- they edged out the Cleveland Indians by only one game in the standings. The final regular season records for the AL leaders....
Boston. 97-65.
Oakland. 96-66.
Detroit. 93-69.
Cleveland. 92-70.
So despite all the Motown hype about having the best starting pitching staff and a regular murderer's row batting line-up, over the course of the full season the Tigers finished with merely the 3rd best record in their league, with those pesky Indians nipping at their heels until the last day.
Looking back, the Oakland A's took the Tigers to the limit in the ALDS before Detroit finally won the deciding game. Given their regular season records, that could actually have been perceived as a mild upset.
Of course the Bosox would oust the Tigers in the ALCS. Former manager Jim Leyland was quoted as saying he thought his team "let one get away". Perhaps, but Boston played in a stronger division all year, and still wound up 4 games better than the Tigers in the regular season. Based on their records, it could certainly be logically argued that the best team won and advanced to the World Series.
Most of the Tiger faithful likely expect their team to once again make a charge for the World Series in 2014 -- and maybe even win it. But there's a whole lot of reasons why the odds are against them. Consider....
The Tigers still don't have a regular left fielder. They've platooned a variety of players at that position, but nobody has stepped up to nail it down. Andy Dirks, Don Kelly, minor league prospect Nick Castellanos? Another named Matt Tuiasosopo was just released. So who knows?
Center fielder Austin Jackson can't seem to stay healthy.
Right fielder Torii Hunter will be 39 years old next July. Make of that what you will.
They have Alex Avila and a couple maybes at the catcher position. Avila himself isn't particularly notable defensively, and he batted .227. Plus, he seems to have a penchant for getting dinged-up in various ways.
The Tigers have slick-fielding, but weak-hitting Jose Iglesias at shorstop.
First baseman Prince Fielder just turned in another of his post-season swoons, that seem to be the norm for him.
The big man himself, Miguel Cabrera, will be coming off groin surgery. Will he return to being his usual terror at the bat -- or might the after effects of such an injury linger -- either physically or mentally? Nobody knows.
And here's the wild card. Who's going to be their next manager, and how well will he mesh with the players?
Obviously, Terry Francona did a bang-up job in Cleveland during his first year there. But brand new managers are a crap shoot. Witness just one year ago (the 2012 season) when Bobby Valentine tried his hand managing the Red Sox. Besides finishing last, the players damn near mutinied against him. Enter John Farrell this year and presto, they became world champions.
Many still consider Justin Verlander to be the ace of their starting pitching staff. But coming off a Cy Young award winning season, the fastball flakes man went a journeymanesque 13-12. I don't want to hear about lack of run support. Over the course of a full 162 game season, 13-12 is what it is. Average. Will he be better next year? Probably.
But fellow starter Max Scherzer went an insane 21-3. Nobody could have foreseen that coming. He's good, but nowhere near THAT good. Will he duplicate it next year? Highly doubtful.
The Tigers' front office has their problems too. Throw in trying to sign or re-sign free agents, other guys eligible for arbitration that will likely get huge raises, and an existing payroll that isn't exactly salary-cap friendly -- and Prez/GM Dave Dombrowski can likely look forward to a few migraines as well. Tough job, working for an absentee owner pizza man. Personally, for the reasons listed above, I think the Tigers will be in worse shape next year than they were this year.
Nonetheless, the wise guys in Vegas see it quite differently, and far be it from yours truly to argue with those folks. I've seen Lake Mead on a few occasions, but I'd really rather not wind up at the bottom of it wearing cement overshoes for the next million years or so. Like Dirty Harry once said, a man's got to know his limitations.
They have the Tigers pegged as the second most likely to win the 2014 World Series, at 9:1 odds. Right behind them at 10:1 are Boston to repeat, St. Louis and the Washington Nationals. Wait a minute. The Nats? Washington, as in DC? Really? Wow, it must be an election year or something.
The LA Dodgers are the favorites at 7:1. Hey, scoff if you will, but Earvin Johnson recently bought into that team, and everything he touches seems to turn to gold. It's like he's magic or something.
Ah, who cares anyway? Between the NASCAR chase winding down, the NBA, the NHL, the second half of the NFL season (with all their various glorious playoffs), March college hoop madness, golf and tennis majors, the Daytona and Indy 500's, and a whole lot of other stuff that will happen before baseball gets relevant again -- I think we'll get along just fine.
But as of now, yours truly still doesn't think the Tigers will be going to the World Series next year.
Shhh. The wise guys might be listening. And I have plans to go back out there in the spring.
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