Few would doubt the annual NHL Stanley Cup playoffs are always a crapshoot. Higher seeded teams that showed their superiority during the regular season are often shown a quick exit. Conversely, there have been squads that barely squeaked into the playoffs as wildcards that have got hot and rolled to win it all. Ya never know.
What's the difference between a really hot goaltender stopping everything and a guy getting beat every which way? Given any netminder that makes it to the NHL has already proven he's very skilled -- mostly luck. The shots are going to come and any NHL goalie will stop the vast majority of the garden variety. But throw in screens, deflections, weird bounces, and/or a defensive gaffe in front of him that results in a 2 or 3 on one situation headed his way quickly, and sometimes he just has to live with his best guess and hope it works out. The same guy can be a brick wall one game, and a screen door on a submarine the next. Again, ya never know.
During the first two games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Wings have shown how unpredictable the playoffs are.
In the first game, they were out-skated, out-coached, out-toughed, and out-shot by a 3 to 1 margin. Yet incredibly, they came away with a 3-2 victory. They had absolutely no business winning that game, but their goalie was hot/lucky. Brick wall.
The very same guy, one Petr Mrazek, got yanked during the middle of Game 2 when the red light behind him kept going on. Screen door. In post-game interviews, Red Wings players said it felt like a close game. The problem? At the end, the scoreboard read 5-1, not so close, with the Wings on the short end.
Detroit is fortunate indeed to not be down 0-2 in this series. Ipso facto, it now becomes the best 3 out of 5, with the Wings having regained home ice advantage. Theoretically, this should work in their favor. Any team would rather play at home in front of their raucous fans to juice them up. But will it make a difference?
Maybe. Maybe not. After all, the Wings "stole" one in Tampa Bay against a team that badly outplayed them. Top to bottom, roster wise, the Lightning are superior to the Wings. Bigger, stronger, and faster. Could they go into Detroit and win one, or even both of the next two contests? Sure. These guys are all professionals and playing in a hostile arena isn't likely to faze them much. Been there, done that, lots of times -- both ways.
Or -- they could split the next two games to make it a best 2 out of 3. Or -- Detroit could win both to go up 3-1, and take a commanding lead. Like most other NHL playoff series', this one started out a crapshoot and remains so.
However improbably it may happen, one thing is etched in stone. First team to 4 victories moves on and the other goes home.
Coaches can juggle lines, scratch this player in favor of that one, and spout all the Soupy Sales-ish words of wisdom they want while the media hangs on their every word. Hey, all these guys, on both teams, are really good or they wouldn't be there. Brick walls and screen doors. Screen shots and deflections. Weird bounces and goalposts that can go either way.
Bottom line?
Forget all the stats the media monsters keep throwing out, because they're irrelevant. It's the NHL playoffs -- remember? Anything can happen and already has in this and other series'. There will likely be much more of the unexpected before it's over.
In any given game between any two given teams, predicting the outcome involves a system we have all long since become familiar with. Sometimes the old ways are best.
Got a coin?
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