Wednesday, March 14, 2012

#1 guide to picking the winner of NCAA hoops

Jim Boeheim and Syracuse just booted their best player off the team for the tournament, one Fab Melo. Something about eligibility requirements. Even though they're "deep", and a #1 seed, Syracuse always seems to get soft in the tourney when the competition toughens up after a couple rounds. I don't think they'd have made it past the Sweet 16 anyway, but without Melo? Fuhgetaboutit.

John Calipari routinely gets unbelievable talents coming out of high school at basketball crazy Kentucky, but he's never been able to finish on top come tournament time. Maybe that's because of his perceived "one and done factory", where so many of those kids jump to the NBA after playing a single year. I dare say most coaches would agree that a couple years of experience at the college level are invaluable not only to teamwork, but how they respond when facing high pressure situations. Kentucky may be the #1 ranked team in the country, and very well make it to the Final Four this year, but I think that's where age catches up with them, in an inverse sort of way.

While North Carolina got off to a slow start, over the season they've become formidable. Barring injuries, and if they're "on" their game, they're as good as anybody. Even though they've had some head-scratching losses, they went into cross-town rival Duke and whomped the Devils even bluer to the tune of an 18 point victory. That's not supposed to happen. Nobody does that to Coach K, especially on his home floor. But they did. The Heels have a top-notch coach themselves in Roy Williams, a nice blend of youth and upper-classmen, and are certainly no strangers to tournament pressure.

There's schools that are potentially dangerous, like Louisville, Georgetown, Missouri, a few others, and who knows which team is going to be the Cinderella this year? Let's not forget Kansas. They're always competitive, and they should be. I mean, what else is there to do in Kansas? Watch wheat grow? Hey Jayhawkers. You'll probably still get your share of tornadoes, but Dorothy and Toto aren't coming back. Get used to it.

That leaves Michigan State as the other #1 seed going in. They were barely nationally ranked, if at all, to start the season, but credit long time coach Tom Izzo for transforming them into the beasts they've now become. Izzo's been there, done that, when it comes to a national title, and has several Final Fours on his resume as well. While his Spartans usually aren't the most talented team, somehow they always seem to turn into the toughest, with the most will power. They might not have the best shooters, but they'll always pound the boards, play ferocious defense, and do the little things that don't always show up on a stat sheet, to make the difference. And, they've got a favorable bracket this year. Unless something very strange happens, they should be able to cruise into the Elite 8, before they face a stiff test -- if then.

Of course, the state of Michigan has two other teams in the tournament, namely the Univ of Mich, and the Univ of Detroit. Let's start with Detroit. While they won a third tier conference named the Horizon to gain admission to the dance, are no doubt thrilled at the exposure they will get on a national stage, and the school will receive a nice paycheck, at a #15 seed, they're going to run smack dab into a #2 seed to start things off. When THAT happens, chances are the only thing they're looking at on their horizon is getting blown up like Hiroshima, or maybe their former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick and his administration.

Coach John Beilein has made remarkable strides at the University of Michigan in a short time. JB has taken a program that had become almost a joke, and put it back on the national radar, no small feat. The Wolverines even knocked off their archrival Spartans this year during the regular season. But are they really contenders in the tournament? Highly doubtful, because with all their brains and resources, they've overlooked a secret missing ingredient that Tom Izzo has on his squad.

So, for the record, I'm picking Michigan State to win the whole shooting match when all is said and done. But I thought Green Bay would beat the Giants, and San Fran would beat the Giants, and surely Tom Brady..... nevermind.

That secret ingredient? Consider the school colors. Michigan State predominantly features green, while Michigan is famous for its blue.

So who's the best player on Michigan State? Draymond Green. Michigan has no answer for that.

Note to John Beilein. Recruit a big guy named Blue next year. Couldn't hurt, and the results might just be a-maize-ing.

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