Friday, October 26, 2018

Michigan in the playoffs?

Maybe. Depends. Do they "control their own destiny"? Not necessarily.

The season opening loss @ Notre Dame wasn't an absolute deal-breaker, because one-loss teams are no strangers to the college football playoffs. See Alabama just last year. They even lost "late" (to Auburn), but only fell from #1 ro #4, hence they still got in. And we know how that turned out. One could hardly begrudge them the championship after wading through formidable competition like Clemson and Georgia in the post-season.

Right now, Michigan sits at #5. Still on the outside looking in. In other words, even if they stay clean in their remaining regular season games, they need help elsewhere. And their game on Nov. 24 @ Ohio State is even huger than normal. Sure, the former #2 ranked Buckeyes took a serious tumble in the polls, and rightly so after getting pummeled by an unranked Purdue team. No matter what they do from here out, no way can they overcome such a colossal misstep to make the playoffs.

Yet you can bet they'll give Michigan all they can handle. Head coach Urban Meyer is yet to lose to the hated Wolverines and him and his boys won't go down easy this year either.

But what if Michigan were to win that game (and stay clean against the likes of Penn State, Rutgers and Indiana in the interim)? Would that get them into the coveted #4 spot, or even higher? Not necessarily.

As mentioned above, even a one-loss Alabama (currently undefeated) will get in. Nobody would question they're one of the top four teams in the nation.

The same is pretty much true with Clemson. Their only remaining game against any sort of serious competition is coming up @ Florida State. And the 'Noles aren't even ranked.

Enter Notre Dame. The Irish are currently #3 and won't face any serious challenges the rest of the season either. (Their last game @USC could be tricky, but the Trojans haven't been any good since Pete Carroll ran a dirty program, got caught, which left the school facing the proverbial woodshed, then bailed north to the Seattle Seahawks).

The thing about Notre Dame is it's a very polarizing school. People either love them or hate them. But one thing's for sure. They have a lot of friends in high places. If there's a way to get Notre Dame in the playoffs, you can bet they'll find it. Plus, being an independent football school, they don't have to worry about playing any sort of conference championship game. They get to rest while other power teams are beating each others' brains out.

So far, Bama, Clemson and ND look good for the playoffs. That only leaves one spot.

Enter Louisiana State, currently #4. True, they got beat by Florida for their only loss, but that hasn't been enough to knock them out of the Big Four.

However, their next game is against mighty Alabama. And that single contest may well determine whether Michigan gets in or not.

Michigan might well find themselves in the situation of rooting for Alabama, Because if they were to defeat the LSU Tigers, the latter would then have two losses. Good-bye playoffs. If LSU were to prevail, it wouldn't knock Bama out (unless it was a blow-out -- and THAT'S not going to happen)

Yet it might very well be the difference-maker no matter WHAT Michigan does in their remaining games, including a conference championship game. If LSU gets by Bama, nobody's going to dispute they deserve a spot in the playoffs.

But first things first. After such a heady win @ arch-rival Michigan State, the Wolverines can't let their guard down at home against the Nittany Lions of PSU. Saquon Barkley or not, those guys aren't exactly patsies.

Yep, the first couple weeks in December are going to get really interesting in college football. There's a whole lot of different possibilities regarding how the four team playoffs shake out.

And Georgia still lurks, to boot. The Dawgs ain't out of it yet either.

{Which just screams for the NCAA to expand the field to eight].

Michigan making it in is possible. But not likely. Even if they were to knock off OSU (and I'll believe that if and when I see it), there's still a lot of ways they won't get invited to the Big Dance.

I'd give them one chance in three.

But even if they get there, does anybody really think they'd have a prayer of knocking off the likes of might Alabama, or even Clemson?

No way.












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