Friday, April 20, 2012

Dynasties and the inevitable fall

There's been countless dynasties over the course of history. The Romanovs in Russia, the Shah of Iran, Hitler, Gadaffi, Napoleon, Genghis Khan, the Roman Empire, and kings galore, to mention a few. Some were relatively short-lived reigns, while others went on for decades and, in the case of the Romans, centuries. Yet, they all had something in common. Eventually, they fell.

Perhaps an analogy can be made to sports, because "dynasties" have existed there also.

The Montreal Canadiens, the New York Yankees, the Boston Celtics, and certainly John Wooden's UCLA hoops teams were all dynasties once upon a time in days of old. Going forward, there have also been many "mini-dynasties" as well. Gretzky's Edmonton Oilers, Bobby Clarke's Philadelphia Flyers, Mike Bossy's New York Islanders, Bradshaw's Pittsburgh Steelers, Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys, the Soviet Red Army hockey team, Brazilian soccer teams, and perhaps even the recently retired Pat Summitt's Tennessee Lady Volunteers basketball program, or Geno Auriemma's UConn lady hoopsters. No doubt, there are several others which I failed to mention, but the point is -- their time came -- and then it went. Some other team or teams came along and dethroned them. It seems to be inevitable. Nothing lasts forever.

The decline of those teams varied. Some are still very good, but are no longer unbeatable. Some eventually "rebuilt" and are at least contenders again. Others hit bottom and have never seemingly recovered. Thing is, the days of dynasties are likely over. The competition has become too fierce. The "draft", free agency, and salary caps for the pros have combined to produce a degree of parity. At the college level, activities that used to be considered "fringe" sports, like ladies' basketball, have garnered national attention. With that comes serious recruiting and highly knowledgeable coaches that are really good at developing players.

Add all that up and, these days, you name the sport, and when the playoffs or tournaments start, for the most part, it's a crap shoot. Sure, there's exceptions, like Brittney Griner and the Baylor Bears that steamrolled everybody on their way to a national championship, but BG will be gone soon, and Baylor will likely fall back into the pack again. Hardly a dynasty.

There are some teams that never seem to bottom out. Year after year, though they might not win the championship -- they're always amongst the elite in their particular sport. Like the New England Patriots. Of course, when Tom Brady hangs up his cleats, or coach Bill Belichick calls it quits, maybe they'll go into a death spiral. Who knows, but even given their success over the years, the word "dynasty" hardly seems appropriate.

Yet, every once in a while, the unthinkable happens. That's when a team has not only won championships, but been so good for so long, seems to find itself in an elevator with only a "down" button.

Enter the Detroit Red Wings. Their owner, Mike Ilitch, has spared no expense to make them as good as they can be in his quest to attain championships. General Manager Ken Holland has been absolutely brilliant during his tenure in searching the world over for talent, and somehow getting them into a Red Wings' uniform, while juggling the salary cap. It all paid off. Detroit has hoisted the Stanley Cup four times in their era. Though the Red Wings certainly weren't champions every year, it seems like they've made the playoffs since forever. Yes, perhaps the playoff format for the NHL is a bit watered down, because over half the teams make it these days -- I get that -- but still the Red Wings always seem to be a contender.

Until now. Once again, they just got bounced in an early round of the playoffs by a team (the Nashville Predators) that few would consider to be elite at this time. If the Preds go on to win the Cup, I suppose I'll have to eat those words, but I don't think that's going to happen. There's too many other really good teams still in the way.

Despite all their success over so many years, I think the Wings are finally starting to slip-slide away. I also think their descent is going to be quite rapid over the next couple years. Their really good players are getting older, hence a step slower and less effective, and the rest of the league has figured out how to negate their skills. They don't appear to have any "diamonds in the rough" in their farm system, and many other teams just continue to get flat-out better.

I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect their inevitable "fall" is coming, and further suspect it will be hard -- and soon.

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