No doubt, the Lions have made some serious progress over the last few years. From 0-16, to 2-14, then 6-10, and now 10-6. This last year, some of their fans, who apparently were chugging the Kool-Aid like a Hummer chugs gas at 100 MPH, even thought the Super Bowl was possible.
They're not even close to that caliber yet. Right now they're smack dab in the middle of the pack. True, they went to the playoffs, but the NFL had handed them an easy schedule to begin with. The NFL gives the good teams tough schedules the following year and the bad teams easy ones, trying to achieve some sort of parity. Even the San Fran game was supposed to be an easy one. Who would have thought they would come so far so fast under rookie coach Jim Harbaugh? The Lions didn't beat a single team all year that wound up with a record over .500.
The Lions' biggest weapon, by far, is Calvin Johnson. Some people might say QB Matthew Stafford is an elite quarterback, because he threw for 5000 yards this year. Those same people tend to forget the Lions had basically no running game -- and if you can't run, you have to throw. If you throw enough, you're going to get serious passage yardage. And guess who was front and center for a great deal of that yardage? Calvin Johnson. Besides, sometimes QBs get too much credit for passing stats. For example, if a QB throws a screen pass to a running back, which is actually completed BEHIND the line of scrimmage, and that running back takes off for a 70 yard run after the catch, the stats will credit the QB with a 70 yard pass. It doesn't seem right, but that's the way it works.
At that, Calvin Johnson has one more year left on his contract with the Lions. If I'm Calvin Johnson, or his agent, I would be thinking real hard about future possibilities. Consider the following:
According to NFL guru Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com, Johnson's projected salary cap number for 2012 is around $22 million. While the Lions might prefer to sign him to a multi-year extension, given Johnson's relatively young age, and current status as probably the best receiver in the game -- the price tag (salary cap hit) would be enormous. Not that the Lions would be dumb enough to let him walk after next year, but can you imagine what this guy would be worth on the open market as a free agent?
Failing to do resign him, the Lions could put the "franchise tag" on him, but that's a yearly deal and would have some major drawbacks as well. As Seifert explained, under the recently signed collective bargaining agreement, the franchise tag figure is determined by whichever is the HIGHEST between the average 5 top salary cap figures at the same position (receiver) over the last 5 years, or 120% of what the player earned the year before.
That comes with a couple serious snags for the Lions' bean counters. First, Johnson's projected $22 million figure for 2012 puts him way over the top of any other receivers over the last 5 years. The nearest one would be Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals, checking in at about $15 million. Therefore, the first option wouldn't seem to apply.
Second, if the Lions put the yearly franchise tag on him at 120% increases per year -- by 2014 that number would have risen to almost $32 million -- which would account for about 25% of the Lions' entire allowable player payroll. Giving just one player a quarter of the payroll would cripple them elsewhere. Let's not forget, they have to pay all the other guys, some of them at skill positions quite handsomely, and if they're serious about becoming a Super Bowl contender, they will need upgrades at various positions, have to resign other quality players whose contracts will expire in the meantime, and pay big bucks for future high draft choices in the next 3 years.
No matter how you look at it, if Calvin's a smart guy and has a shrewd agent, all the leverage tilts in their direction. Unless Johnson is willing to take a serious pay cut over the next few years in his loyalty to his current team, which would seem unlikely given the mercenary nature of professional sports these days, the Lions are in a serious bind with this situation.
Or they could trade him. Lions' fans would be outraged, but it might be the best choice. Johnson's coming off a career year, his value will never be higher, and the Lions could probably get a combination of both player upgrades and a couple relatively high draft choices in return. Plus, no matter how much money the Ford family may have, they're only allowed to spend the same as every other team in the NFL under the cap rules.
Let's face it. Matthew to Calvin, with nothing much else going on, will never win a Super Bowl.
And isn't that supposed to be what it's all about?
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