Hey, if so-called NFL guru Peter King of Sports Illustrated can continue to do it with HIS track record, then I should be able to give it a shot. Good grief, he picked San Diego to go to the Super Bowl in the pre-season and, once the playoffs started, had New Orleans winning it all. It's kind of like Mel Kuyper with his draft picks. He can throw out a 1000 gigs of sound bytes about this and that, but when it finally goes down, he doesn't have the faintest idea what's going to happen either.
The differences between me and those guys? Two things. I flat-out admit I don't have a clue -- and -- they get paid just a wee bit better than I do trying to play Nostradamus. Onward.
In the NFC, the NY Giants will play in San Francisco. What the 49ers have accomplished since firing Mike Singletary and hiring Jim Harbaugh has been remarkable. Normally, it takes a new head coach 2-3 years to establish his system, and get a few players that better fit into it than what the last guy left them. Not Harbaugh. The turnaround was immediate and amazing. QB Alex Smith has been rejuvenated, their defense is amongst the leaders in the NFL, and they don't make silly mistakes to hurt themselves.
The Giants resemble a sine wave. It seems like every time head coach Tom Coughlin has botched yet another game with his strategies, and should be on the hot seat to be fired -- BAM -- they get on a roll. Right now they're probably the hottest team in the NFL.
Yet, if there's a Cinderella still left in the playoffs -- it's probably San Fran. Yes, they wore the glass slipper while beating Drew Brees and the Saints in a classic game, but the clock is getting close to the midnight hour and Eli's coming. Besides, any team that can waltz into Lambeau Field and defeat the mighty Packers in their own backyard gets my vote.
NY Giants 31. SF 49ers 24.
The AFC finals is a tough call. Neither Baltimore nor New England, which both played at home, faced very stiff competition in the conference semis. The Ravens knocked off the Houston Texans who were playing with a 3rd string quarterback, and while Tebowmania had its place for a while, there was no way the Denver Broncos, even though they beat the Steelers the week before on a freak play, were going to survive what mad genius Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and Co. had in store for them in Foxborough. It resulted in a predictable blow out.
But this is an intriguing match up. New England's defense is terrible. Many teams have gone up and down the field on them all year long, but Tom Brady and the offense still put up enough points to win. On the other hand, Baltimore isn't exactly known as an offensive juggernaut. They grind it out with running back Ray Rice, and QB Joe Flacco seems to do just enough NOT to lose the game.
The key will likely be Baltimore's defense vs New England's offense. Ray Lewis and the Ravens' defense are getting a little long in the tooth, as they say, and this might be their last go-round for a shot at a (another) ring. But make no mistake -- those guys are savvy veterans and still very good at what they do. Then again, we're talking about the Pats playing at home with arguably the smartest coach and most cold-blooded QB under pressure in the game. From several wide receivers to a pair of tight ends that are probably the best in the league right now, they have offensive weapons galore.
Thing is, Brady has to have time to go through his "reads" to be successful, and I look for the Ravens to take that away. If nothing else, whatever it takes, through various defensive alignments and schemes, the Ravens will bring a ferocious pass rush on Brady. Even if it takes a couple penalties for late hits, one way or the other, they will try to rough Brady up. When Brady's been under extreme heat in the past, sometimes he's made ill-advised throws, that wind up in the hands of the guys wearing the other jerseys. It could be that Belichick would anticipate that and use the Ravens' aggressiveness against them by calling a lot of draw plays, quick slant patterns over the middle, or screen passes. But if the Ravens' veteran defense sniffs those tactics out, it might result in plays for lost yardage or a receiver gasping for air after getting blown up a millisecond after he touched the ball going over the middle.
It should be quite a chess match. Normally, one would give Belichick the advantage in such a game of wits.
But sometimes it just gets down and dirty, and that's how I see this playing out. Nobody does down and dirty better than the Ravens. In an upset....
Ravens 20. Patriots 17.
So there. I just picked both road teams to win.
Who needs Peter King? Anybody can do this stuff.
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