Saturday, July 27, 2013

Max Scherzer. 15-1. A 30 game winner?

I don't think so. In fact, it's impossible. Unless the game of Major League baseball radically changes it's pitching strategies, there will never be another 30 game winner.

Consider the last, and only living pitcher to have won 30 games in a single season . Of course that would be Denny McLain. He pulled it off for the Detroit Tigers back in 1968, going 31-6. Not so well known is the fact he had an eye-popping 1.96 ERA over that entire year. For a starting pitcher, that's an incredible stat. I dare say even most of the elite modern-day "closers" would be quite happy with that particular number.

Thing is, McLain started 41 games that year. Given his 31-6 record, and a 162 game season, simple math dictates he not only started every 4th game, but got the win, or loss in all but 4 of them. Back in those days, teams lived and died with their starters a lot more than they do today. For better or worse, they rode those horses hard. In recent years, most clubs feature a Baskin-Robbins bull-pen of relievers. Lefties, righties, long/middle/short relief, a set-up guy, and a closer. Anymore, most MLB managers will tell you they're happy if they can get 6-7 innings out of a starter. Then again, with 7 or 8 multi-million dollar different flavored ice creams sitting out in the bullpen, doing nothing more than playing euchre or texting their girlfriends, it only seems fitting they should get tasted once in a while. But I digress.

After beating the Phillies earlier tonight, Scherzer has now run his 2013 record to a dazzling 15-1. Having started only 21 games, math again says Mad Max has taken the decision in all but 5 of them. In other words, and to his credit, Scherzer has been quite the work horse himself.

But here's the rub. Scherzer has no, as in ZERO chance of winning 30 games. Why? Because even if he won every game he started for the rest of the year -- he'd still fall quite short of that mark.

Consider: The Detroit Tigers have now played 103 games this season. That means 59 more to go (any post-season stats don't count). Unlike pitchers of yore like Denny McLain who started every 4th game, the modern-day variety only starts every 5th game -- at best. Because he just pitched last night, Scherzer likely won't start again until there's only 55 games remaining. Sorry about harping on the math, but do it again. Fifty five games divided by starting every 5th one equates to 11 more starts. Even if he runs the table, he'd wind up at 26-1. Sure, that would mean a slam-dunk Cy Young Award, and quite likely make him the American League MVP as well.

But 30 wins? Fuhgettaboutit. Not even close.

Think of Denny McLain as you will. A chicken farmer, organ player, TV personality, convicted felon -- whatever.

But 31-6, with a 1.96 ERA for a starting pitcher?

You'll never see numbers like that again.

Ain't gonna happen.

It's a matter of simple -- well -- you know.











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