Most have likely heard of multi-billionaire philanthropist Warren Buffet's NCAA hoop challenge. Though the offer technically originates with Quicken Loans (and who knows about that pesky Dan Gilbert? He hasn't seemed quite right since his Cleveland Cavaliers lost LeBron James a while back),Warren Buffett himself is guaranteeing it. And the good Mr. Buffett is definitely a man of his word.
Fill out a perfect bracket, and win a billion bucks. If you plan on living for at least another 40 years, ou can take it in $25 million annual installments, or a lump sum of $500,000,000. Kind of like winning a mega state lotto. And then the feds and state will pound you for taxes, and thousands of people you never knew will all of a sudden be your best friends in dire need, and -- well -- you get it. All that aside, it sounds great. Just one problem. The odds.
According to a Duke mathematics professor, the odds of filling out a perfect bracket are 148 pentillion to one. In layman's terms, that translates to one chance in 148,000,000,000,000,000,000. Or as the Dukie number cruncher said, about the same odds as finding a single atom of a single snowflake in a blizzard. Put another way, about the same shot the Detroit Lions have of winning the Super Bowl. Sorry, couldn't resist. Ahem.
However, the professor said this stat was based on picking games at random. Like flipping a coin. If one is somewhat knowledgeable about college hoops (and isn't everybody a genius at this time of year?) the odds get considerably better. Only a billion to one. The same amount as the potential payout.
I'm telling ya, Warren Buffett now only knows what he's doing financially, he's a helluva fair guy. And charitable? Off the charts when it comes to good causes. The list is long. Amongst other things, he and his son Howie are now donating millions to help save the rhinos in Africa from poachers. One of the greatest attributes of my buddy Warren is, despite his wealth and fame, he never lost sight of the common man in need. Just last week, he came over to dog-sit my yorkies when I was called away on urgent business of my own. Right.
Nevertheless, it doesn't look like anybody is going to collect on the billion dollar gambit this year. For that matter, since bracketology even started decades ago, with all the millions or billions of people that have filled them out during that time -- nobody has picked the winners of all the games. EVER.
To boot, the cannon-fodder "play-in" games aside, consider what's already happened on merely the first real day of the tournament. Ohio State apparently became the first casualty. As a #6 seed, the mighty Buckeyes went down to #11 seed Dayton. Ouch. So much for in-state bragging rights. It was projected that roughly 81% of all brackets crashed and burned with how that single game turned out.
#12 Harvard knocked off #5 Cincinnati. That probably trashed at least another 10% of the brackets. In somewhat of a stunner, #12 North Dakota State just kicked #5 Oklahoma to the curb. How many more potentially perfect brackets fell by the wayside? Likely a whole bunch.
And this is just the first day of the tournament. Other somewhat surprising results are sure to follow in the next few days. The guess here is that by the time the tourney has merely whittled itself down to the "Sweet 16", nary a perfect bracket anywhere will still be alive.
No fool, that Warren Buffett. I dare say his billion is quite safe this year. Besides, the money is better spent elsewhere than giving it to some couch tater that lucked up and nailed the bracket. He'd likely go money crazy and probably wind up doing something stupid that cost him his life. Saving the rhinos and the like are far nobler causes indeed.
As for the Lions mentioned above hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy? Warren Buffett may be a financial genius and philanthropist extraordinaire, but even with all his billions, the man has his limitations when it comes to performing miracles......
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