Next weekend is probably the best time of year for hard-core NFL fans. The herd has been culled and only the cream of the crop remains (with one exception -- I'll get back to that). Further, there's two games on Saturday and another two on Sunday. A couch tater's paradise. Stock up on the brewskis and put the local pizza joint on notice. It's time for some serious football. Here's a look at the NFL's version of the Elite Eight.
Indianapolis @ Denver. Colts' QB Andrew Luck is a superb talent and his time might come. But it won't be this year against the guy he replaced. The old Omaha chicken neck, he of the bazillion stupid commercials, isn't done just yet. Plus the Broncos, especially at home, have a defense that gets after people. Methinks Andrew's luck runs out in mile high land, maybe in a rout. Not quite a no-brainer, but Denver's the obvious pick.
Baltimore @ New England. Though the Pats are a touchdown favorite, be careful with this one. Yes, Brady, Bellichick and company are still up to their old magic and are tough at home. For that matter, Brady is #1 in all-time home playoff victories. But the Ravens are tied for #1 all-time in ROAD playoff victories. Remember, not long ago they were only a wild card team with some no-name QB named Joe Flacco, but rode it all the way to a Super Bowl victory. Flacco's still there, and he's gotten better with experience. If there's one team built to knock off the Patriots in their backyard -- it's the Ravens. And they've done it 2 out of the last 3 times they met. Bellichick may remain the mad genius and Brady the coolest under pressure cerebral QB in the game that can make something out of nothing with an underwhelming supporting cast, but John Harbaugh's Ravens are the classic example of a hard-nosed blue collar team that finds a way to get the job done, especially when the pressure is on. I always did like Tom Brady and think he's been a class act his entire career. But I'm taking the Ravens in an upset.
Carolina @ Seattle. In most years a team like Carolina wouldn't have even MADE the playoffs. And it somehow seemed unfair the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) only wound up a wild card in the super tough NFC West, so had to go on the road to face Carolina (7-8-1) in the wild card game merely because the Panthers wound up on top of the otherwise pitiful NFC South. But that's the way the system works and the Cards got eliminated, while having to play a back-up, back-up, back-up QB due to injuries over the year. Regardless, the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks have it all going for them right now. They're basically healthy, had a week off to heal up the usual assortment of bumps and bruises, and are playing at home, arguably the most daunting venue for a visiting team to cope with. Plus, they've been on a roll in recent weeks. Pete Carroll's bunch looks to have finally rounded back into the take-no-prisoners playoff mentality they displayed last year. The one thing interesting about this game will be the over/under number from the wise guys in Vegas. (I haven't seen it yet). Considering both teams' defenses are as tough as they come, that number could be an all-time low. Regardless, Cam Newton and crew will find out the 'Hawks are a whole different animal than the Cards were. I smell a blow out.
Dallas @ Green Bay. This game is even more interesting than the above mentioned Balt/NE matchup. For the first time in NFL history, a team with a perfect home record (Green Bay, 8-0), will host a team with a perfect road record (Dallas, 8-0) in the playoffs. Something's gotta give.
Idle trivia question. Statistically, who was the top-rated QB for the regular season? Aaron Rodgers? Brady? Peyton? Brees? Luck? Stafford? Wilson?
Trivia answer. None of the above. It was Tony Romo.
Yes, Romo has been known in the past for, shall we say, less than stellar play when the pressure ratchets up late in the season. I suppose one could be refer to it as other things -- like brain-freeze or choking. Has he finally matured past that stage? Answer unknown. We'll find out in Green Bay. And it's not like the Packers have been unbeatable at Lambeau during the playoffs in recent times. In fact, they were eliminated in their beloved Cheeserland just last year by the San Fran 49ers, and two years before by the NY Giants. But that was then, and this is now, so it doesn't matter.
Idle remark overheard. Cowboys' head coach Jason Garrett said he had a "sense" the weather might be a little colder for Da Boys next playoff game after playing the first one inside Jerry Jones' palace down in Big D. Great call, JG. It's January -- in Green Bay. I'm pretty sure your crew need not pack their suntan oil and thongs in their carry-ons for a trip to the beach after practice.
But like Seattle, by nature of a bye, Green Bay had a week off as well. That was the greatest thing that could happen for Aaron Rodgers to finally be able to rest his lingering calf injury. He should be at full tilt. Both teams have capable QBs (assuming a certain choke factor doesn't rear it's ugly head again) and a variety of offensive weapons. The Cowboys have the league's leading rusher in Demarco Murray. The Pack has an equalizer in the punishing running game Eddie Lacy brings every week. Dez Bryant here and Randall Cobb there. For every Jason Witton there's a Jordy Nelson.
Defensively, both teams can be stone walls in one game (or even a half) and porous the next week (or the other half of any given contest). The chess game between the coodinators for both teams will definitely be afoot.
Ignoring the possibility of key injuries happening within the game (if either starting QB goes down early their team is in trouble), and assuming all other factors semi-balance out throughout (penalties, turnovers, etc.), I'm conditionally picking the Packers for one reason only -- and it's not home field advantage.
Remember in the wild card game against the Lions, New Jersey governor Chris Christie was up in Jerry Jones' owner's suite. That was all well and good because A.T. & T stadium is a relatively new building incorporating the latest engineering technology.
Conversely, Lambeau Field is quite old. Yes, it's undergone renovations in recent years, but the old steel beams and girders that support the structure remain the same as they were back when it was originally built in 1957. They weren't designed to support that much weight.
If Christie shows up again (and you just know as a politician he'll want to -- getting to see a game for free on somebody's else's dime in the lap of luxury with national photo-ops to boot -- are you kidding?) to hang out with his pal Jerry in the visitor's suite, the whole damn thing could come tumbling down. That would result in about 80,000 very pissed off Cheeseheads, not to mention firing up their team.
However, if the round mound of spinsound is denied access by JJ and has to go back to Jersey, thereby averting possible catastrophe and making this just another normal playoff game, I'd hedge my bet.
Got a coin?
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