Saturday, May 5, 2018

Dwane Casey. Forever over-rated

The current head coach of the Toronto Raptors seems to have lived a charmed life.

From high school, through college (Kentucky), and overseas adventures (Japan), Casey found, or fell into a way/place/program that was successful. But always at a second tier level. A decent player, but not a really good one. Assistant coaching jobs galore,but always with another head man in charge calling the shots.

It could fairly be said Dwane Casey served a long apprenticeship.

It could also fairly be said he narrowly avoided a career bullet when "proof beyond a reasonable doubt" wasn't found regarding illegal cash going to a college player -- though it "allegedly" had Casey's name on it as the sender.

Yet he escaped, barely, and was finally rewarded a head coaching job in the NBA. He would succeed Kevin McHale as the coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves, some thirteen years ago, in 2005.

His record since ----

2005-06  Missed playoffs.
2006-07  Fired mid-season.

That probably should have been the end of Casey's NBA head coaching job, but it wasn't.
After a four-year hiatus, which he spent bouncing around Japan, the Toronto Raptors gave him a shot at the head coaching gig.

His record since ----

2011-12  Missed playoffs
2012-13  Missed playoffs
2013-14  Eliminated in first round
2014-15  Eliminated in first round
2015-16  Eliminated in third round -- the conference championship, high point of his career.
2016-17  Eliminate in second round --- a step backwards.

And 2017-18, this year, the Raptors, though a #1 seed, are on their way to being swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers, a #4 seed, in the second round again.

After dropping the first two games at home, then losing a close one at the buzzer in Cleveland, chances are good the Raptors will fold their tents -- again -- and humbly bow out in Game Four. Chances of them coming back from an 0-3 deficit against Lebron and Co.? About the same as the Detroit Lions winning the Super Bowl, or yours truly winning a Pulitzer for his writing. Let's just say -- not so good.

The thing about Dwane is, he seems to get a lot out of his teams during the regular season, but is equally clueless when the playoffs start.

His regular season winning percentage over the years mentioned above?  .549. Not outstanding by any means, but the Raptors have been playing in a division on the weak side throughout. Still, not too shabby.

But the killer stat rears it's ugly head when the playoffs have started.

Casey's career record there is a dismal .419.

And it will be going down a few percentage points after this season is over. The probable 4-0 sweep by the Cavs hasn't been computed into that figure yet. It might well dip below .400. And that's horrible.

So the question would seem to be thus --- why do the Raptors keep giving this guy contract extensions when he's already proven his glass ceiling and/or Peter Principle comes front and center with a vengeance when the post-season starts?

And hey, the Raptors are about as good as they're going to get. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers appear to be a team of the future (see a couple years down the road), and the Boston Celtics (through GM Danny Ainge's masterful dealings) are ready to compete now. True, they've been severely handicapped by the season long absence of Gordon Heyward and the injury to Kyrie Irving. But how good will they be next year, assuming everybody's healthy?

Answer -- a whole lot better than Casey and the Raptors.

In sum, Dwane Casey is just another guy that has been over-rated and over-hyped through the years.

Because the stats don't lie.

Kinda good, even pretty good through the regular season, but a gag is always waiting at the end.






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