Just when you think you've got if figured out....

WHAM, you don't.

After the Washington Capitals won the first two games AT Tampa Bay in the NHL's eastern conference finals, they should have been a lock -- right?

Not so fast.

Back comes the Lightning to win the next two IN Washington, another at home, and take a 3-2 series lead. Of course, most Washington teams are famous for choking in the post-season, including the Caps, so it followed that Tampa Bay would dust them off in Game Six to complete another epic DC fold.

[And BTW, though the Nationals of Major League Baseball have been loaded with talent in recent years, they can't seem to get out the first round of the playoffs. Don't be surprised if they gag it up again this October.]

But it didn't happen. The Caps would prevail. On to Game Seven. Who will win that? Got a lucky penny?

In the NBA, the Boston Celtics won the first two games at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Beaners have yet to lose at home this post-season, and have home court advantage in the Eastern Conference finals. But they've pretty well stunk it up on the road as well.

Now the Cavs have come back to win Games Three and Four at home, evening the series. Still, they have to win a game at Boston somewhere along the line to get to the Finals.

And you get the feeling they'll do just that. Lebron and Co. will overcome. Maybe. Besides, the Celts are playing without their two best players, namely Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. It's somewhat amazing they've made it THIS far. Kudos to them.

In the West, everybody figured all along it would boil down to Golden State and Houston slugging it out. And so it has.

OK, the Warriors went into Houston and "stole" Game One, thereby gaining home court advantage. It's been a couple years since the Dubs lost a home playoff game, so they should be a lock -- right?

Um, not necessarily.

The Rockets would come back and thump the Warriors to the tune of 22 points worth in Game Two. Twenty two points is a beat down. And Houston had won two out of three from GS during the regular season, and had a better record to boot. So you had to figure the Rockets would have regained their confidence.

Until Game Three, back in Oakland. The Warriors won by FORTY ONE POINTS?  Forget beat down, that's a massacre, a slaughter, where's the "mercy rule" when you need it? The league's "best" team got hammered by 41 points? Oh my. So much for the previous confidence builder. Welcome to the wood shed, Californee style.

But again, ya never know. If the Dubs blast them again like that to take a 3-1 series lead, Houston will probably fold. The pressure on the Rockets to win Game 4, even by the slightest of margins, is enormous.

Yet just when you think you've got THAT figured out, along comes a little blip on the radar. Or maybe not so little after all. Golden State's Andre Iguodala got a knee banged up. No, he isn't considered an "All-Star" like his four teammates Curry, Durant, Thompson, and Green. But he WAS a starter and played a quiet, if quite significant role for the Dubs. Namely, being a premier defender. Iguodala made things very difficult for the likes of Chris Paul and James Harden, depending on which he was guarding as they tried to drive the ball towards the hoop.

While supposedly not the "end of season" type of knee injury, subtracting him from the equation could prove fateful indeed. Remember, two years ago when the Warriors had a commanding 3-1 lead over the Cavs in the Finals, Draymond Green was (rightfully) suspended for Game 5, for his thuggish behavior. The Dubs would lose that game, at home, the tide turned, and the Cavaliers came back from the 3-1 deficit to capture the title.

Don't underestimate the presence, or lack thereof, of Iguodala. If the Rockets can "steal" Game Four in his absence, this series will take on a whole new look. Good for Houston. Not so good for Golden State.

But we'll see. Still got that lucky penny?

Cuz lord knows, just when yours truly thinks he has it figured out, he once again is shown to be clueless.

It never fails.