Not that long ago (see July 27th) your humble, if sometimes crazed, correspondent wrote an article on Detroit Tigers' starting pitcher Max Scherzer. At the time, Scherzer sported an incredible 15-1 record. That particular piece went on to explain how it was impossible for Scherzer, or anybody else for that matter, to ever reach the magical plateau of a 30 win season ever again.
Former Tiger Denny McLain will always be the last to have achieved such a mark. And that was 45 years ago, way back in 1968. This is because latter-day starting pitchers simply don't get enough opportunities to rack up that many wins. As opposed to the "old days" when they started every fourth day, hence having 40 or so chances in a 162 game season -- modern-day starting pitchers only take the mound every fifth game -- at best. Given the same 162 games available, simple math dictates pitchers like Scherzer might be lucky to even GET thirty starts, let alone win them all. Bottom line? It ain't gonna happen.
Nevertheless, Scherzer poses an interesting hypothetical scenario. After starting out 15-1, with still a couple months left in the season -- just how many wins would he chalk up anyway? 24? 25? He was on a roll, and with the Tigers' fearsome batting line-up normally providing ample run support, it remained to be seen what his final regular season win tally would be.
Since being 15-1, Scherzer has gone a very respectable 4-2 to arrive at his current record of 19-3. Very impressive stuff indeed -- perhaps even Cy Young award worthy.
But then something strange happened. In his last 4 starts Scherzer hasn't found a way to win. He's still stuck on 19. After today the Tigers have 11 games left in the 162 game regular season. Midway between starts, Scherzer likely only has two more opportunities. He could win them, lose them, or suffer another "no decision".
Yet in a worst case scenario -- how incredible would it be if a guy started out 15-1, with two months left to go in the season -- but never even made it to 20 wins?
Could happen. If Max doesn't chalk up his 20th win in his next outing -- he'll only have one shot left.
And if it plays out that way -- who would have believed it way back on July 27th?
I'm just saying........
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