Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Rafael, Serena, and..... Tiger?

Rafael Nadal recently won the men's US Tennis Open for his 13th major title. At 27 years of age, the Spaniard is only one major title behind retired Pete Sampras' second place career mark of 14. Of course, the still very much active Roger Federer rules the all-time roost with 17 to his credit. Federer might even add to his total, but it's more likely he won't. That's because Father Time seems to accelerate in professional tennis. At 32, Federer is still a young man, but by tennis standards -- he's getting up there.

At 27, after having fully recovered from a lingering leg injury, Nadal appears to be as formidable as ever. The way he blistered #1 ranked Novak Djokovic in the US Open final match was almost jaw-dropping. Barring another injury, or perhaps a premature retirement, it's quite possible, maybe even probable that Nadal will set the all time record.

Of course, the same thing was said about Tiger Woods a few years back. Like tennis, golf has it's own 4 majors every year. There was a time not that long ago in pro golf when there was Tiger -- and the also-rans. He was just that good. It wasn't unusual for people betting on any given tournament, particularly a major, to take Tiger over the rest of the entire field. In hindsight, that showed just how dominant he was. There have certainly been "dynasties" in the world of sports over the years, but betting on one team or player versus the rest of the entire field seems to be a plateau of  superiority only Eldrick Woods has attained.

Back in the day, when Woods was winning everything in sight, it was almost a given he would easily surpass Jack Nicklaus' all-time record of 18 major titles. He zoomed up to 14, and then.... the wheels seemed to fall off. Whether it was his personal life imploding, various injuries, new clubs, new caddy, new swing coach, and even re-inventing his swing itself -- it doesn't matter. Tiger hasn't won a major in the last 5 years, and he's not getting any younger. Indeed, Woods is 37 now. My, how time flies.

Then again, Father Time slows things down in golf, as compared to tennis. Woods could very well be a major force to be reckoned with for several more years to come -- but like Federer --  as time marches on -- the odds against him keep getting longer. Those other young hot-shot kids that keep sprouting up like dandelions in the spring the world over aren't going away. Worse yet, besides bringing some "serious game" themselves, they don't fear guys like Roger or Eldrick anymore, because they know the once seemingly invincible are now beatable. Confidence is a factor in sports contests. If an "underdog" thinks he/she/they can win, then they'll play that much harder to pull it off. And sometimes they do. Then -- with a win under their belts, they get even more confident. This does not bode well for the established "super-stars" in golf and tennis. The "kids" are getting bigger, stronger, faster, better, and more confident, while the old-guard likely hear a tick-tick-tick somewhere in the recesses of their minds. Like they once stormed onto the scene to run the previous generation of greats into the past tense, it's only a matter of time before it happens to them as well.

So will Tiger ever catch or surpass Jack's major record? Yours truly thinks not. Too much really good competition each time, and it only takes one to get hot for Woods to be denied another major title.

Seems like I forgot something here. Oh yeah. Serena, in the title above. Like Rafael Nadal, Ms. Williams also won the US Tennis Open. This is her 17th major title. Like Roger, Serena will be 32 in a couple weeks. Though her sister is only a year older, Venus seems to have succumbed to Father Time's relentless march. Yes, she's still a very good player, but being a serious threat to capture another major title doesn't appear likely in Venus' future. Of late, she's lucky to get to the quarter-finals, let alone win. It's not gonna happen. Those pesky kids have zoomed past her.

But Serena continues to defy the clock. At the "ripe old age" of 32, she's obviously still the best lady tennis player in the world. She's got as many major titles under her belt as Roger Federer and appears as formidable as ever. How long she can continue at that level of play remains to be seen. Another year? 2? 3?  If she gets to be an old geezer of 35 and is still dominating the tennis world, forget about drug testing. Have her checked out for bionics.

Either way, chances are Serena's not going to set the all-time record for major ladies' titles. That is held by Margaret Court, with a total of 24. Serena would need two a year, quite a feat in itself, for the next 4 years to pass the Aussie.

And in tennis, at her age, 4 years is a very long time.

Don't think it's gonna happen.



1 comment: